Phoenix Market Report

Market Update from Jean Grant

2011-11-28T06:01:00.000-08:00

Market Comment

Mortgage bond prices ended slightly lower last week, which pushed mortgage interest rates higher. Weak stocks and continued Euro debt concerns helped rates improve early in the week. The data generally helped rates as well. Q3 GDP disappointed with 2% increase compared to the expected 2.5% mark. The Treasury auctions had strong demand and also helped the overall bond market. The shortened and thin trading conditions fortunately did not result in any extreme whipsaw trading that is often common. Mortgage bonds ended the week worse by approximately 1/8 of a discount point.

Look for the employment report to gain the most attention this week.

LOOKING AHEAD

Economic Indicator	Release Date & Time	Consensus Estimate	Analysis
New Home Sales	Monday, Nov. 28, 10:00 am, et	295k	Important. An indication of economic strength and credit demand. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Consumer Confidence	Tuesday, Nov. 29, 10:00 am, et	39	Important. An indication of consumers’ willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
ADP Employment	Wednesday, Nov. 30, 8:30 am, et	105k	Important. An indication of employment. Weakness may bring lower rates.
Revised Q3 Productivity	Wednesday, Nov. 30, 8:30 am, et	Up 2.9%	Important. A measure of output per hour. Improvement may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Fed “Beige Book”	Wednesday, Nov. 30, 2:00 pm, et	None	Important. This Fed report details current economic conditions across the US. Signs of weakness may lead to lower rates.
Weekly Jobless Claims	Thursday, Dec. 1, 8:30 am, et	385k	Important. An indication of employment. Higher claims may result in lower rates.
ISM Index	Thursday, Dec. 1, 10:00 am, et	50.7	Important. A measure of manufacturer sentiment. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Construction Spending	Thursday, Dec. 1, 10:00 am, et	Up 0.2%	Low importance. An indication of economic strength. Significant weakness may lead to lower rates.
Employment	Friday, Dec. 2, 8:30 am, et	9%, Payrolls +101k	Very important. An increase in unemployment or weakness in payrolls may bring lower rates.

Why Data is Important

One of the easiest and most important things to do when making a decision whether to float or lock a loan is knowing what data is going to be released. Economic releases are important because they provide a snapshot of a portion of the economy. Data is even more important in that it is often the cause of market volatility. Upcoming data events are readily available and there is no excuse not knowing what data will be released in the week ahead.

While an in depth understanding of an economic event can help a person make informed decisions, it is more important to have a rudimentary understanding of when an important piece of data will be released and what basic effect that data can have on the market. Understanding the nuances of a release does very little for a person if they are blindsided by not knowing when the release will occur. Accurately predicting how each and every release will come in is impossible.

Floating into important economic data can be very risky and can expose a person to huge market swings. Keep that in mind this week, as there is an abundance of significant data heading our way

Market Comment by Jean Grant at Hunt Mortgage

2011-10-24T06:00:00.000-07:00

Market Comment

Mortgage bond prices ended last week near unchanged, which kept mortgage interest rates relatively in check. Trading was choppy with some rate improvements Tuesday, which unfortunately were erased Wednesday and Thursday. Stock strength made it difficult for mortgage bonds to gain any traction. Higher than expected producer price, housing starts, and Philadelphia Fed data also made it difficult for rates to improve.

The employment cost index and PCE core inflation data will be the most important releases this week. The Treasury auctions will be followed closely. If foreign demand falters it could carry over to mortgage backed securities.

LOOKING AHEAD

Economic Indicator	Release Date & Time	Consensus Estimate	Analysis
Consumer Confidence	Tuesday, Oct. 25, 10:00 am, et	46	Important. An indication of consumers’ willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Treasury Auctions Begin	Tuesday, Oct. 25, 1:15 pm, et	None	Important. 2Y Notes on Tuesday, 5Y Notes on Wednesday, and 7Y Notes on Thursday.
Durable Goods Orders	Wednesday, Oct. 26, 8:30 am, et	Down 0.2%	Important. An indication of the demand for "big ticket" items. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
New Home Sales	Wednesday, Oct. 26, 10:00 am, et	287k	Important. An indication of economic strength and credit demand. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Weekly Jobless Claims	Thursday, Oct. 27, 8:30 am, et	401k	Important. An indication of employment. Higher claims may result in lower rates.
Q3 Advance GDP	Thursday, Oct. 27, 8:30 am, et	Up 1.2%	Very important. The aggregate measure of US economic production. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Personal Income and Outlays	Friday, Oct. 28, 8:30 am, et	Unchanged, Up 0.1%	Important. A measure of consumers’ ability to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
PCE Core Inflation	Friday, Oct. 28, 8:30 am, et	Up 0.1%	Important. A measure of price increases for all domestic personal consumption. Weaker figure may help rates improve.
Q3 Employment Cost Index	Friday, Oct. 28, 8:30 am, et	Up 0.4%	Very important. A measure of wage inflation. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment	Friday, Oct. 28, 10:00 am, et	57	Important. An indication of consumers’ willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.

Employment Cost Index

The employment cost index is a quarterly report issued by the Department of Labor. The report measures the growth of wages, salaries, and benefits costs over a certain period of time. Though ECI figures are usually weeks old, the data remains the best indicator of employment price pressures considering it factors employees’ total compensation.

If wage pressures become evident, higher expectations of inflation also tend to arise. However, increasing compensation does not necessarily lead to increased inflationary pressures. Oftentimes, increased productivity enables employers to increase compensation without increasing the costs of their goods or services. Be cautious heading into this release.

Jean Grant's Market Update

2011-10-17T06:42:00.000-07:00

Our Vice President at Hunt Mortgage, Jean Grant, emails us a great market commentary of the previous week.

Market Comment

Mortgage bond prices fell last week, which pushed mortgage interest rates higher. The roller coaster ride of investor funds entering and exiting the stock and bond markets continues as economic uncertainty dominates trading. The losses continued as foreign demand for US debt instruments waned. Stocks were volatile but generally saw improvements on the week. Retail sales rose a stronger than expected 1.1%.

Mortgage bonds ended the week worse by about 1/4 of a discount point.

The inflation data on the producer and consumer sides will be extremely important this week. There is also a 30Y TIPS auctions Thursday. The recent auctions have shown weak foreign demand, which generally does not bode well for lower rates so caution will be key.

LOOKING AHEAD

Economic Indicator	Release Date & Time	Consensus Estimate	Analysis
Industrial Production	Monday, Oct. 17, 9:15 am, et	Up 0.3%	Important. A measure of manufacturing sector strength. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Capacity Utilization	Monday, Oct. 17, 9:15 am, et	77.2%	Important. A figure above 85% is viewed as inflationary. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Producer Price Index	Tuesday, Oct. 18, 8:30 am, et	Unchanged, Core up 0.1%	Important. An indication of inflationary pressures at the producer level. Lower figures may lead to lower rates.
Consumer Price Index	Wednesday, Oct. 19, 8:30 am, et	Up 0.3%, Core up 0.2%	Important. A measure of inflation at the consumer level. Lower than expected increases may lead to lower rates.
Housing Starts	Wednesday, Oct. 19, 8:30 am, et	565k	Important. A measure of housing sector strength. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Fed “Beige Book”	Wednesday, Oct. 19, 2:00 pm, et	None	Important. This Fed report details current economic conditions across the US. Signs of weakness may lead to lower rates.
Weekly Jobless Claims	Thursday, Oct. 20, 8:30 am, et	400k	Important. An indication of employment. Higher claims may result in lower rates.
Philadelphia Fed Survey	Thursday, Oct. 20, 10:00 am, et	-10.4	Moderately important. A survey of business conditions in the Northeast. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Leading Economic Indicators	Thursday, Oct. 20, 10:00 am, et	Up 0.2%	Important. An indication of future economic activity. A smaller increase may lead to lower rates.

Significant Data

Recent economic reports have carried mixed weight in driving the financial markets in light of stock market swings. While stocks have set the tone for trading in mortgage-backed securities recently, an abundance of significant data this week may begin to weigh upon the market as well.

It is possible for mortgage interest rates to trend lower again. However, the potential for increases is also very real, as we have seen the past few weeks. Signs from the data this week that the economy is recovering could lead to stock strength.

Stocks are likely to continue to dictate trade. A weaker stock market may help to maintain current mortgage interest rate levels. However, signs of recovery in the stock market can pressure mortgage bond prices lower and rates higher.

The price gap between REOs and short sales has narrowed substantially and disappeared completely for several price ranges.

2011-09-20T05:38:00.000-07:00

Our new mid-point forecast for the average monthly sales $/SF on October 15 is $79.21, which is 0.49% above the September 15 reading, and we have a 90% confidence that it will fall within ± 2% of this mid point, i.e. in the range $77.63 to $80.79. A substantial change in the mix can have a significant effect on the average price per sq. ft. and we are still seeing considerable variation from day to day.

Since we are projecting a small and insignificant rise in pricing it is possible that our reading for August 25 - $78.69 per sq. ft. - will remain the low point over the near term. While prices for lender owned homes are on the rise, short sales and normal listings are still displaying considerable price weakness, so the overall price direction is still vague. The lowest monthly average sales price is $150,201 set on August 25. However the record low monthly median sales price is still standing at $107,000 and this was set seven months ago on February 24. Our current monthly median sales price is back at $110,000, where it has been for the majority of the last 9 months.

There have been several media stories making a big deal about increased foreclosure numbers in August. Outside Arizona, and especially in judicial foreclosure states. these may have had some significance. Inside Maricopa County, they seem to have no significance at all. The rise in completed foreclosures from July to August was small at 8% and less than the 15% increase in the number of days that the calendar gave the trustees to work. There was a noticeable rise in foreclosure notices issued by Recontrust, the company that handles the notices for Bank of America. However the notices for other trustees were at roughly the same level as July and substantially down from 2010. The underlying downward trend is reinforced by the month to date numbers for September. We are projecting about 4,500 new foreclosure notices during September, a drop of some 16% from August and about 2,850 trustee sales, a drop of about 21%. Part of the drop is because September has 9% fewer working days (21) than August (23). Nevertheless it still looks like the foreclosure tide is on its way out, and the inventory of bank owned homes continues to fall, as does the count of pending foreclosures

Mid Month Pricing Update and Forecast

2011-09-20T05:37:00.000-07:00

Each month about this time we look back at the previous month, analyze how pricing has behaved and report on how well our forecasting techniques performed. We also give a forecast for how pricing will move over the next 30 days.

For the monthly period ending September 15, we are currently recording a sales $/SF of $78.83 averaged for all areas and types. This is 0.7% lower than the $79.40 we now measure for August 16. Our forecast range was $77.17 to $80.21 with a mid-point of $78.74. Once again our forecasting technique proved remarkably accurate as the actual figure is only 9 cents higher than the mid point of our forecast range. The reason for the unusual accuracy over the last two months is that the market has remained fairly stable although it did change substantially after mid June. For the last three months sales activity has been concentrated at the bottom end of the market with the middle and top end much weaker than during the spring.

On September 15 REO sales across Greater Phoenix (all types) averaged $61.65 per sq. ft. (up a substantial 3.5% from August 16). Pre-foreclosures and short sales averaged $73.27 (down 0.3%) while normal sales averaged $100.73 (down a startling 4.9%). Normal sales gained market share, moving from 32.4% to 33.1% of sales, while REOs lost substantial market share, moving from 45.0% to 41.4%. Short sales and pre-foreclosures were the winners again this month, moving from 22.6% to 25.4% and recovering from a dip in August after a strong spike at the end of June.

On September 16 the pending listings for all areas & types showed an average list $/SF of $78.47, 0.5% above the reading for August 16 - the first time we have seen a rise for several months. Among pending listings we have 27.6% normal, a sharply declining 35.0% REO and a fast growing 37.4% in short sales and pre-foreclosures. The average pricing for pending listings on August 16 in each category were: $108.70 normal, $68.90 short sales & pre-foreclosures and $60.82 for REOs. We can see that compared with last month the pending $/SF averages are up for REOs, but down for normal listings and (especially) short sales.

February 2010 Market Data

2010-03-17T17:41:00.001-07:00

Phoenix Metro Area Real Estate Report

Latest Case-Schiller Chart for Phoenix

2009-01-02T06:10:00.000-08:00

The deviation is expected to revert back to or below the mean.

Real Estate Experts

Excellent insight on the success of short sales

2008-10-18T10:03:00.000-07:00

Strategy to stave off Arizona foreclosures falls short of goal

by Catherine Reagor - Oct. 18, 2008 12:00 AM
The Arizona Republic

More than 7,000 homeowners facing foreclosure in the Valley are trying to sell their homes through a process known as a short sale, according to Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service data.

But less than 5 percent manage to sell before lenders seize their houses.

The failure by banks and homeowners to agree to a short sale - to sell a home for less than the amount still owed on the mortgage - is adding to the Valley's growing foreclosure problem.

Read more >>

New housing outlook: 5 years to recover

2008-01-17T06:06:00.000-08:00

Catherine Reagor
The Arizona Republic
Jan. 17, 2008 12:00 AM

Home prices will stop falling. New- and used-home sales will pick back up. And the subprime-lending debacle will be over but not forgotten.But it could take a few years for that to happen in metro Phoenix.

The prognosis for the housing market's recovery came Wednesday at the Urban Land Institute Arizona's Real Estate Trends conference. The real-estate think tank's annual daylong gathering is one of the state's biggest and most influential real-estate events. There, top economists, analysts, developers, brokers and investors present candid market predictions.

"The bottom of the housing market may occur in 2008 or 2009, but a full recovery will probably take three to five years," said Elliott Pollack, an Arizona economist and real-estate investor. "This slowdown ends when housing prices stabilize, and they will. Unfortunately, the worst is still ahead of us.

Because of foreclosures, metro Phoenix home prices could fall 30 to 35 percent from 2006's peak and values won't likely return to that high before 2015, said Gadi Kaufmann of the national real-estate advisory firm Robert Charles Lesser & Co.

Read more >>

Apache Blvd. grows from seedy to chic

2007-11-25T06:18:00.000-08:00

East Valley Tribune
Nov 5, 2007

Garin Groff

Apache Boulevard had long been overlooked by anybody who had money — unless they had a few bucks for drugs or a hooker. Now, the rundown buildings and weed-filled lots along Apache are some of Tempe’s hottest real estate.

Developers have bought some of the bleakest places for new condos, apartments and shops. The area is seeing its biggest boom in decades as builders construct housing and shops that are far nicer than many could have imagined just a few years ago.

Nearly 20 developments are planned or under way on a 2.5-mile stretch of Apache, ranging from eight-story condo buildings to single-family homes.

The area’s rebirth is largely the result of the same thing that made it boom decades ago and then fall into decline: its status as a major transportation corridor.

The boulevard was the original route of U.S. 60 before the Superstition Freeway was started in the 1970s. The new highway diverted drivers from the motels, service stations and restaurants that had thrived for decades.

Read more >>

Gilbert considers money for 1st-time home buyers

2007-11-14T05:16:00.000-08:00

Chris Markham, Tribune

The Gilbert Town Council will consider increasing the amount of money available to assist first-time home buyers.

Town staff have recommended the council approve a change order that will mean increasing funding for the home ownership assistance program by $12,082, adding to the current $234,536.

The council is set to vote on the matter at its regular meeting tonight. Gilbert’s program is administered through Maricopa County and provides financial and counseling assistance to low- and moderate-income people who want to buy their first house in the town.

The program provides a secured, no-interest loan that is later repaid when the home is sold or refinanced. The fund is generally sustained as past recipients repay the loans.

Read more

UCLA: Economy Near Recession

2007-09-12T06:18:00.000-07:00

From the LA Times: Economy will hover near recession, forecast says

The nation's economy will be so sluggish well into next year that any major hiccup could tip it into recession, UCLA's latest economic forecast predicts.

The end of easy credit and a further decline in home construction are sending the economy into a "near-recession," with growth hovering at just above 1% through the first three months of 2008, according to the UCLA Anderson Forecast to be released today.

The forecast presents a gloomier outlook for jobs and the housing market. The nation's unemployment rate will rise to 5.2% by mid-2008, up from the current 4.6%.

And the forecast for housing starts is grim:

The group sees [housing starts] bottoming out at 1 million units annually, down from the previous forecast of about 1.2 million.

Read more...

Inner-city housing gets a boost

2007-04-18T12:43:00.000-07:00

Former Phoenix Mayor Johnson developing market for moderately priced homes

Grayson Steinberg
The Arizona Republic
Apr. 18, 2007 08:07 AM

Former Phoenix Mayor Paul Johnson hopes to bring affordable living to the inner city at a time when much of the Valley's low-cost housing is on the outskirts.

Johnson, 47, founded Berkana Homes two years ago to exclusively develop affordable residential infill projects. His company targets teachers, police officers, firefighters and others that seek housing close to the central city, its jobs and cultural amenities, but can't pay the hefty price tag. These people can generally afford homes within the $190,000 to $250,000 range, Johnson said.

Homes at those prices are typically found in the suburbs, said Johnson, who was the Phoenix mayor from 1990 to 1994 and a councilman before that.
Read more >>

Second-Biggest Subprime Lender Halts New Loans as Defaults Rise

2007-03-12T06:22:00.000-07:00

This is huge.

By James R. Hagerty and Gregory Zuckerman and Ruth Simon
From The Wall Street Journal Online

In the clearest sign yet of how rapidly funding is vanishing for the risky loans that helped fuel the housing boom, nervous creditors forced New Century Financial Corp., the nation's second-largest subprime mortgage lender, to stop making new loans.

The Irvine, Calif., company, which has been plagued by rising defaults on its subprime mortgage loans -- home loans made to borrowers with weak credit -- said it has been in talks with its creditors to "identify ways to address their concerns" and obtain more funds in the near term. But it added that "there can be no assurance that these efforts will succeed."

Yesterday, people close to the matter said New Century got fresh financing from one of its biggest creditors, investment bank Morgan Stanley. Even so, the company's mounting woes intensified speculation that it may be forced to file for protection from creditors under Chapter 11 of the federal Bankruptcy Code unless it can find a suitor or sell assets soon.
Graphic Who gets hurt when subprime loans go bad.

A former New Century executive said the company's best option might be to try to sell its servicing business, which collects payments and handles other administrative duties on loans outstanding, and its mortgage portfolio. As of Sept. 30, the company reported that its portfolio totaled $14 billion.

A New Century spokeswoman declined to comment on the possibility of a bankruptcy filing or asset sales.

In 4 p.m. composite trading on the New York Stock Exchange, New Century's shares dropped $1.29, or 25%, to $3.87, giving the company a market value of about $215 million. The stock has fallen 73% since last Friday, when it closed at $14.65.

Director Steps Down
One of New Century's outside directors also stepped down. Late Wednesday, hedge-fund manager David Einhorn resigned the board seat he won in March after tangling with company management over strategy. Mr. Einhorn is president of Greenlight Capital LLC, New York, which holds a 6.3% stake in New Century. At the current share price, that stake is valued at about $14 million, down from more than $160 million in mid-2006. Mr. Einhorn declined to comment.

New Century's fate now is in the hands of its chief creditors, which along with Morgan Stanley include Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Barclays PLC and Credit Suisse Group.
Investment banks like these provide financing for lenders like New Century to make loans, then buy those loans and package them into securities for sale to investors world-wide.

Portfolio of Loans
New Century said one of its lenders, which it didn't identify, has provided it with $265 million in financing secured by the company's portfolio of loans held as an investment. That lender also provided $710 million of financing for mortgage loans previously financed by another lender, which exercised its right to withdraw that financing, New Century said.

People familiar with the matter cited Citigroup as the company that withdrew funding and Morgan Stanley as the provider of new financing. A Citigroup spokesman declined to comment.
Wall Street firms and big banks stand to gain in some ways from the troubles of subprime lenders, even as they take some hits on loans and securities. The turmoil is reducing the number of competitors in what was until recently a very lucrative business. Many of the firms make subprime loans themselves, often through mortgage brokers.

Until a few weeks ago, the mortgage industry was awash in cash from investors searching for higher yields. That made it easy for borrowers to get a mortgage -- even if they had bad credit or couldn't document their income or provide a down payment.

Now, rising defaults have soured investors' appetite for securities backed by such mortgages, making it hard for subprime lenders to sell their loans and raise cash to make new ones. The industry's troubles are quickly and sharply cutting the availability of credit for borrowers with weak credit.

The latest disclosures at New Century come as two other large subprime lenders, Novastar Financial Inc. and H&R Block Inc.'s Option One, announced this week they would no longer be offering certain "piggyback" products, a pair of loans that together finance 100% of a home's cost.

A third lender, Fremont General Corp., stopped making subprime home loans earlier this week after announcing its exit from the business last Friday under pressure from regulators.
While several dozen lenders have shut their doors, others are quickly upping the minimum credit scores they require for various types of loans.

"The last couple of weeks have been almost catastrophic," said Armand Cosenza, a mortgage broker in Cleveland. Mr. Cosenza said he turned down eight loan applicants on Wednesday because he couldn't get them a mortgage. At least five of them would have qualified for a loan six months ago, he said.

George Hanzimanolis, a mortgage broker in Tannersville, Pa., says his office has turned away 30 to 40 people in the past week because of tighter lending standards. "It's scary how quickly these very large lenders are just...imploding," he says. "The situation will get uglier before it gets better."

Many economists say that the subprime crunch won't cause big problems for the U.S. economy. But economists at Goldman Sachs in New York said in a report this week that the tightening of subprime credit could cut annual demand for new homes by 200,000 units, or about a fifth of new-home sales last year.

"This credit tightening potentially will create another leg down in housing," said Ivy Zelman, a Cleveland-based housing analyst for Credit Suisse Group.

Some of the Wall Street firms that have financed New Century's lending have expressed confidence that its troubles won't have a major impact on them. Earlier this week, Barclays, which has given a $1 billion line of credit to New Century, said: "The vast majority of our exposure to all U.S. subprime lenders is fully collateralized. We do not anticipate material losses to arise from our exposure to the sector."

As of Sept. 30, Morgan Stanley had extended a $1.5 billion credit line to New Century. A person close to the firm said it believes that any losses from New Century won't be material.
Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and Credit Suisse declined to comment on details of their exposure to New Century.

Rare Black Eye
For Mr. Einhorn, the hedge-fund manager, the New Century debacle is a rare black eye. As of yesterday, his Greenlight Capital's 6.3% stake made it New Century's second-largest shareholder, after Hotchkis & Wiley Capital Management LLC, Los Angeles, with a 7.1% stake, according to Thomson Financial. A Hotchkis spokesman declined to comment.
Greenlight Capital was down 2.8% through the end of February, according to a letter sent to investors, with the bulk of those losses due to New Century. Last year, the fund scored gains of 25%.

New Century, second in its share of the subprime market only to Countrywide Financial Corp., disclosed last Friday that it is subject to a federal criminal inquiry into trading in its securities and accounting. The company also said it expects to report pretax losses for the fourth quarter and full year but couldn't yet quantify them, pending an investigation by the audit committee of its board into accounting problems.

New Century, which last year made loans totaling $59.8 billion, has about 6,700 employees after laying off about 300 earlier this month.

Read more >>

Home resales drop in Valley

2007-03-09T06:38:00.000-08:00

March 8, 2007
Misty Williams, Tribune

The key to metropolitan Phoenix's housing market rebound is fixing its failures from the past few years.

That was housing market analyst RL Brown's message at a forecast last week.

Here are some items on his list of the market's cracks:

• New home developments too quickly became resale communities as early investors competed with builders.
• The Valley's loss of its affordable edge compared with other big cities.
• Transportation gridlock for home buyers on the fringes.
• "Disneyland" financing, meaning all of the more risky mortgages. They have opened the door to allow investors to buy multiple houses and other home buyers to potentially commit fraud and put struggling buyers into more house than they can afford.

Read more >>

Will market swallow its 'medicine'?

2007-01-28T06:42:00.000-08:00

Jan. 28, 2007 12:00 AM

The key to metropolitan Phoenix's housing market rebound is fixing its failures from the past few years.
That was housing market analyst RL Brown's message at a forecast last week.

Here are some items on his list of the market's cracks:

• New home developments too quickly became resale communities as early investors competed with builders.

• The Valley's loss of its affordable edge compared with other big cities.

• Transportation gridlock for home buyers on the fringes.

• "Disneyland" financing, meaning all of the more risky mortgages. They have opened the door to allow investors to buy multiple houses and other home buyers to potentially commit fraud and put struggling buyers into more house than they can afford.

Read more >>

Area businesses absorbing office space at record level, report says Phoenix jumps 2 spots in firm's apartment list

2007-01-27T06:18:00.000-08:00

John McLean
Arizona Business Gazette
Jan. 25, 2007 12:00 AM

Cushman & Wakefield of Arizona Inc. released its latest report on office space for 2006, which shows that the Phoenix area absorbed space at a record level.

Posting the nation's highest population growth increase, at 3.6 percent, and the creation of 85,500 jobs were drivers fueling the office market.

Area businesses led the market to post a direct net absorption of 3.46 million square feet in 2006, edging past the previous high of about 3.3 million square feet in 2000.

Read more >>

State targets mortgage fraud

2007-01-24T05:30:00.000-08:00

Catherine Reagor
The Arizona Republic
Jan. 23, 2007 12:00 AM

A wave of mortgage fraud in the Valley has prompted state legislation that would define it as a crime punishable by up to 10 years in prison.

A day after The Arizona Republic's special investigation into cash-back mortgage deals, Sen. Jay Tibshraeny of Chandler introduced a bill that would make mortgage fraud a felony."

Mortgage fraud hurts everyone," said Tibshraeny, who has been working on the legislation for months. "Buyer, beware of a deal that seems too good. The strings your Realtor or mortgage broker pull may be illegal."

Read more >>

Little House on the drawing board: A new crop of inexpensive, hip homes is good news for young adults

2007-01-10T15:16:00.000-08:00

Fourteen thousand miles is a long way to go to find the American dream. But that's how far Karrie Jacobs, a New York free-lance writer, drove her VW convertible in search of a dwelling she could afford - and wanted to live in.

A spartan budget of $100 a square foot for 1,000 square feet wasn't the only hitch. Jacobs, the founding editor of Dwell magazine, the glossy bible for the Bauhaus crowd, is a devotee of modern design. To qualify as her dream house, the architecture would have to belong to this time. Not yesteryear in Burgundy or at Monticello, but now.

That insistence assured that the house would have to be custom-designed rather than builder-produced. Whether Jacobs could find an architect to create well and cheaply is the driving dynamic of her quirky, important book, "The Perfect $100,000 House: A Trip Across America and Back in Pursuit of a Place to Call Home."

Read more >>

Light rail could slow traffic

2007-01-09T06:14:00.000-08:00

Trains will necessitate traffic-light revisions

Katie Nelson and Sean Holstage
The Arizona Republic
Jan. 5, 2007 12:00 AM

Traffic on Tempe streets will move more slowly once light rail is operating, according to Metro engineers.

Now, Tempe traffic experts and light rail analysts are working to minimize the impact of the trains.

The trains will trigger other changes, mainly how long stop lights last and whether turn signals happen before or after the green-yellow-red cycle.

Read more >>

ASU housing project draws ire

2007-01-09T06:07:00.000-08:00

Eugene Scott
The Arizona Republic
Jan. 6, 2007 12:00 AM

Developers recently broke ground on a $130 million residential project on Arizona State University's Tempe campus, but some residents are still unpleased with the plans.

The 1,866-bed residence hall will open in the fall of 2008. University Park and Davey Park residents have complained to university and city officials and, most recently, the Arizona Board of Regents about the project.

In response to their concerns, the South Campus Residential Community parking garage will now be two stories instead of seven, and balconies were removed from some of the units. But traffic remains a major concern.

Read more >>

Housing Is Still Off Balance

2007-01-07T21:25:00.000-08:00

By Alex Markels
US News.com
Posted Sunday, January 7, 2007

You might think the recent uptick in home sales-the second in as many months-would be a sign that the ailing housing market is on its way to recovery in 2007.

But according to economists like Edward Leamer, "you'd be dead wrong."

Despite a prediction of moderate economic growth, a 10 percent increase in the stock market, and as many as three interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve Board in the coming year, the director of the UCLA Anderson Forecast says residential real estate will nonetheless be a "moderate to poor" investment in 2007-with median prices for new homes declining from 5 to 10 percent nationally and existing-home prices treading water at best.

Read more >>

Renters gloat over housing slump

2006-12-28T19:10:00.000-08:00

James R. Hagerty and George Anders
Wall Street Journal
Dec. 26, 2006 11:21 AM

The housing slump has been painful for millions of people who work in real estate or recently bought a house.

For Patrick Killelea, however, this year has been one long victory lap. Killelea, a 41-year-old software engineer, has long preached that it makes more economic sense to rent than buy homes. He recalls shouting "Wow!" when he heard about September's 9.7 percent drop in prices of new homes."

I didn't want to gloat," he says. "But then again, maybe I did."

For years, Americans who refused to buy real estate at what they considered excessive prices were ribbed for failing to profit from one of the greatest booms in history. "Are You Missing the Real Estate Boom?" needled the title of a 2005 book by David Lereah, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors.

Now, with the housing market in a slump, renters who sat out the boom are finally getting some satisfaction.

Real estate market may be headed for a turnaround

2006-12-28T18:59:00.000-08:00

Washington Business Journal - 12:07 PM EST Wednesday
by Joe Coombs
Senior Staff Reporter

Sales of new single-family homes took a sharp drop in November compared to 2005, but activity actually ticked up a bit from the previous month.

About 1 million new single-family homes sold in November in the U.S., down 15.3 percent from more than 1.2 million homes in November 2005, according to a report from the U.S. Department of Commerce. November's sales volume was 3.4 percent higher than October, a sign that the flagging real estate market may be making a turnaround.

The median sales price for new single-family homes was $251,700. The average price in the U.S. for new homes in November was $294,900.

In Greater Washington, new and existing homes continue to sell at rates higher than the national level. In D.C., the median sales price in November was $410,000, although that was a drop of 7 percent from November 2005.

Read more >>

Light rail spurs rush of private development

2006-12-25T05:19:00.000-08:00

Sean Holstege
The Arizona Republic
Dec. 24, 2006 12:00 AM

Two years before the light-rail system opens, private investors are starting to pump more than $1 billion into new developments near the rail stations.

The investments promise to reshape key corners and neighborhoods along the 20-mile route, an infusion that is typical of light-rail systems but is occurring earlier in the Valley than in other cities."

I don't think you've seen this level of public and private investment anywhere else in the country before a light-rail line even opens," said Bo Martinez, Phoenix's economic development manager for light rail.

Read more >>

Bulls & bears: What's next for Valley housing market?

2006-12-24T05:57:00.000-08:00

Drag on Valley housing market raises question:

Valdez
THE ARIZONA REPUBLIC
Dec. 24, 2006 12:00 AM

The defining event of 2006 in this real estate mad state was the housing slowdown. Now, the question is: What happens next?

It was a national phenomenon, dragging on the economy, slamming the results of large, publicly held house builders and home-improvement chains, and costing perhaps hundreds of thousands of construction jobs. Foreclosures and mortgage delinquencies have shot up, especially for people who took out subprime mortgages.

In Phoenix, the slowdown is palpable, from the shelved plans for high-profile skyscraper projects in the central city to halted, half-finished subdivisions on the metropolitan fringes.

Read more >>

Arizona rated fastest-growing state

2006-12-22T14:05:00.000-08:00

The Business Journal of Phoenix - 1:46 PM MST Friday

Arizona did not gain as many people as Louisiana lost, but the Grand Canyon state still gained residents at a fast-enough rate to qualify as tops in the nation, according to a Friday announcement from the U.S. Census Bureau.

Between July 1, 2005, and July 1, 2006, Arizona grew at a 3.6 percent rate, edging previous speed growth leader Nevada, which had a 3.5 percent gain.

Idaho was third, with a growth rate of 2.6 percent.

Read more >>

Finding W. Valley water just the start

2006-12-18T05:52:00.000-08:00

Shaun McKinnon
The Arizona Republic
Dec. 18, 2006 12:00 AM

Beneath the desert in the far West Valley, beyond the White Tank Mountains, enough water fills a sprawling, hourglass-shaped aquifer to supply tens of thousands of homes for at least the next century.

Finding the water was the easy part.

But before developers can fire up the first drill rig, they must prove to the state that they can replenish most of the groundwater pumped from the aquifer without tapping any other underground reserves. It's a high hurdle meant to protect Arizona's resources while still allowing growth.

Read more >>

Valley's next boom: Buckeye

2006-12-18T05:48:00.000-08:00

Catherine Reagor
The Arizona Republic
Dec. 17, 2006 12:00 AM

A remote parkway in the far West Valley nicknamed the "Road to Nowhere" is poised to become Main Street for nearly 1 million people.

More than a dozen huge developments are sprouting up on both sides of the 30-mile-long Sun Valley Parkway, west of the White Tank Mountains. The area is expected to draw a quarter of all the Valley's new homes during the next few decades and transform the sleepy town of Buckeye into a giant suburb 40 miles west of downtown Phoenix.

Buckeye, with just 30,000 residents, has been annexing so much land it's about to rival Phoenix in sheer size. Its small downtown is still south of Interstate 10, but now its northern boundary stretches along the White Tanks so far that Buckeye is almost butting up to Wickenburg.

Read more >>

Housing: Curb Your Enthusiasm About A Recovery

2006-12-15T20:35:00.000-08:00

Home prices still have room to decline, and it may take 15 years or more to reach new inflation-adjusted highs

Housing booms are short and exciting. Housing busts, on the other hand, are long and painful. So don't put much faith in those oft-heard assertions that the worst is already over. Prices are likely to fall further in many markets in 2007. In some others, prices may rise, but at less than the rate of inflation. A BusinessWeek analysis of the past three decades shows that if history repeats itself, it's likely to take 15 years or more for many parts of the country to get back to their inflation-adjusted peaks.

For residential real estate, the outlook for 2007 ranges from mildly positive to awful. The major markets that do least badly will be "revenge of the nerds" cities like Dallas and Houston that the boom bypassed. Even if all they generate is low-single-digit price gains, they will look good by comparison. Seattle and Raleigh, N.C., with healthy job growth, should also do O.K. The biggest losers will fall into one of these groups: cities like Detroit that are suffering economic contractions; cities like Los Angeles, San Diego, and others in California where prices are extraordinarily high and have barely begun to adjust; and cities like Miami, Las Vegas, and Phoenix that have a huge overhang of unsold houses or condos.

Advice to homeowners: If you need to sell and you're not getting much interest, cut the price by an extreme amount. If you make halfhearted cuts, you'll remain overpriced and you'll follow the market all the way to the bottom. Advice to buyers: Bargain hard. Many sellers are still asking for too much. "As tough as our market's been, the toughest thing is to get sellers to understand that prices aren't going up 18% to 20% a year anymore," says Ned Redpath, head of Coldwell Banker Redpath & Co. Realtors in Hanover, N.H.

Read more >>

Newspaper, Bubble Blogs Feed the Real Estate Obsession

2006-11-30T05:37:00.000-08:00

by Mark Glaser
November 29
200612:12PM

Have you ever gone to an open house even though you weren’t interested in buying the property? Have you ever pored over housing price data on Zillow or read through housing ads on Craigslist just for fun? You are not alone. There seems to be a growing obsession with real estate in the U.S., as home prices have soared in the past few years, only to come back to earth a bit in the past year.

But during that boom — and the current correction/bust — blogs of all stripes have sprung up to feed the need for instant real estate information, photos of noteworthy homes for sale, and the off-color stories related to city living. While some newspaper sites have had some recent success with real estate blogs, independent bloggers who have called the boom a speculative bubble — a.k.a. the bubble bloggers — have found a rabid audience for their bearish views.

“Bloggers have moved into bubble coverage because the media hasn’t done a very good job of covering the reality, and reporters are more conventional and look for the story of the hour and what the statistics are,” said Carol Lloyd, who writes the must-read Surreal Estate online column about the San Francisco Bay Area market. “And some of the statistics are produced by the NAR [National Association of Realtors], and they look like they’re just covering the industry for the industry.”

Read more >>

Mortgage troubles are rising

2006-11-25T13:25:00.000-08:00

Catherine Reagor
The Arizona Republic
Nov. 25, 2006 12:00 AM

The number of people losing their homes to foreclosure or falling behind on their mortgages in metropolitan Phoenix is near a two-year high, the latest and most tragic sign of the Valley's housing market slowdown.

Foreclosures started climbing in parts of the country last year, but the metropolitan housing market was still going strong until early spring, when home sales started slowing and then listings spiked. Now, people are losing their homes at a nearly record rate, not only in the West Valley, where foreclosures have traditionally been high, but also in pricey neighborhoods in the East Valley, where credit-card debt levels are higher than average.

Last year, financially strapped homeowners in the Valley were able to escape foreclosure by selling homes quickly for a profit. Others refinanced and pulled out equity that they used to pay off other bills. Many switched to adjustable-rate mortgages with lower monthly payments.

Read more >>

Is home solar energy affordable?

2006-11-24T22:16:00.000-08:00

Mark Shaffer
The Arizona Republic
Nov. 24, 2006 06:05 PM

Harold "Rusty" Weaver of Mesa said it really wasn't a tough decision to shell out an extra $16,000 for the flat, black, 4-kilowatt solar-electric panels atop the tile roof of his new home.

After all, Weaver said he was spending up to $500 a month on electricity at his previous home, which is 1,000 square feet smaller than his new house. The solar panels come billed as cutting his electric bills in half. Weaver figures that he will pay back his investment in about seven years with all the rebates and tax credits he will receive. Solar cells have a life of about 30 years.

"Cutting costs in the long term and doing something good for the environment seems like the thing to do," Weaver said.

Read more >>

Worst of U.S. housing slowdown over: WSJ poll

2006-11-23T05:47:00.000-08:00

Tue Nov 21, 2006 4:35am ET

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The worst of the United States' housing market slowdown is over, economists forecast by nearly 2-to-1 in a Wall Street Journal online economic survey, the paper reported on its Web site on Tuesday.

But the economists still predict that the average selling price of a house will fall somewhat next year, it said.

The 49 economists expect home prices, measured by the government's Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight index to fall by 0.5 percent next year, the WSJ reported on its Web site. That contrasted with a 13.4 percent increase in 2005.

After several years of double-digit increases, house prices stopped climbing this year. Prices still have some way to fall before they stabilize but there are signs that the most drastic part of the downturn, marked by a sharp pullback in demand and new construction, have run their course, the paper said.

Read more >>

Changing Marketplace Complicates Home Valuation Process for Realtors(R) and Appraisers

2006-11-11T08:24:00.000-08:00

NEW ORLEANS, Nov. 10 /PRNewswire/ -- In today's transitioning realestate marketplace, pricing a home properly is one of the biggestchallenges that sellers face. Providing accurate property valuations inthis environment can be complicated, as well.

In the session, "The Low Appraisal: Recourses and Remedies," today atthe 2006 REALTORS(R) Conference & Expo here, a panel of experts toldRealtors(R) how to handle a transaction in which a buyer and seller agreeon a sales price that's higher than the home's appraised value.

For consumers, appraisals are an often unnoticed but essential part ofthe home buying or refinancing process. Most lenders require propertyappraisals when granting mortgages to ensure that they are not lending morethan a home's value. Appraisals also protect buyers by preventing them frompaying too much for a home. High appraisals can sometimes be an indicationof mortgage fraud, which has already resulted in $546 million in losses inthe first half of 2006, according to the Federal Bureau of Investigation.Low appraisals can prevent buyers from getting a mortgage and inhibit ahome sale.

The National Association of Realtors(R) represents about 30,000 state-licensed and certified appraisers throughout the country. NAR recommendsthat lenders be required to inform borrowers of the methods used to value aproperty to determine the amount of the mortgage loan, and that borrowershave the right to obtain a copy of all value estimates or value opinions onthe property.

Read more >>

Tempe previews its soaring skyline

2006-11-09T06:12:00.000-08:00

By Garin Groff, Tribune
November 9, 2006

It takes a crane to build tall buildings, and a dozen of them have sprouted up in Tempe’s skyline. “And there are a dozen more on the way,” Tempe Mayor Hugh Hallman said Wednesday.

Those cranes will bring an unprecedented change to the East Valley’s skyline, a look the city showed off for the first time Wednesday as it released a computer-animated video of new buildings coming soon to downtown and Town Lake.

The video offered the best idea yet of what Tempe will look like with a 30-story condo tower and several other buildings that range from 12 to more than 20 stories. The footage gives a bird’s-eye view, as if it were shot from a helicopter, and reveals the planned buildings from multiple angles.

While the local and nationwide real estate market has slowed and even killed some projects, Hallman said the downtown’s features have made the area immune to larger market forces.

“It doesn’t apply here,” he said.

Read more >>

As prices fall, US home buyers benefit

2006-11-06T19:34:00.000-08:00

More affordable housing would be a boost for the economy, some experts say.

By Ron Scherer and Patrik Jonsson Staff writers of The Christian Science Monitor

NEW YORK AND ATLANTA – Six months ago, the 1920s-era Southern bungalow in Atlanta's Kirkwood neighborhood probably would have sold at its full price asking price of $325,000. But after playing hardball with the seller in the past few months, Phil Hagedorn and his fiancée, Kristen Burgess, got the price down by $25,000. And the seller paid the closing costs.
"It's absolutely getting better for buyers," says Mr. Hagedorn, a medical school student. "I had a gut feeling that [the price drop] was going to happen."

Falling housing prices in some areas are now making it possible for people like Hagedorn and Ms. Burgess to enter the housing market. If this were to happen nationally, it would be good news for the housing market since, currently, affordability is a major issue for many would-be buyers. This year, the percentage of household income going to mortgage payments has been at the highest point since 1990.

Read more >>

Advertising: Realtors Say the Stars Are Aligned for Housing

2006-11-05T06:35:00.000-08:00

By VIKAS BAJAJ
New York Times
Published: November 3, 2006

IT may go down as the “Got milk?” moment for the housing sector.

Just as dairy associations, with their widespread ads, have tried to convince Americans of the many benefits of milk, the National Association of Realtors will begin promoting the notion that buying a home is an unalloyed good in a $40 million campaign that boldly declares: “It’s a great time to buy or sell a home.”

The ads will try to counter the drumbeat of dour housing data and news by making the case that historically low interest rates, a large supply of homes on the market and the group’s forecast of rising prices next year make now an ideal time to buy a home.

Read more >>

New Home Sales: Look at Bigger Picture, Mortgage Applications

2006-10-28T06:01:00.000-07:00

I love the posts on this site. This posting has some very good 'big picture' graphs.

Posted on Oct 27th, 2006
David Andrew Taylor

I wrote something yesterday on how existing homes sales were showing signs of slowing, yet overall is a weak indicator. However, it does add to the overall picture in the housing market.

I got a comment from Jed, a commenter who's shown that he's got more than just a basic understanding of the economy. His comment was that, overall, the housing market was slowing down. Very true. He brought attention to seasonal adjustments that would in fact lower the overall existing homes sales picture. I've not actually seen the document he's referenced, but it made sense. I got the sense that if we were to seasonally adjust the data, the picture would look a little more bleak for existing homes sales. Again, however, I defer to my opinion on existing homes sales, that as the economy goes, it's not all the big of a deal what happens in this arena. I'm more concerned with construction spending and new homes purchases/builds.

Reflexive Changes in Real Estate

2006-10-23T06:27:00.000-07:00

Posted on Oct 23, 2006 by the editor of Seeking Alpha

While much has been written about the housing market recently, it is Paul McCulley's PIMCO October Piece that had some key insights into price momentum. It is a very important point that the housing market is "reflexive" -- to use the term that George Soros coined.

That is, increases or decreases in prices are based upon expectations for the future, not necessarily on fundamental reasons like percentage of income devoted to mortgage, interest rates, scarcity of land. If people "think" that prices would go higher, that will justify paying more than the intrinsic value. The exact same can be the case when and if people "think" that real estate is not a good storage of value.

Think of the NASDAQ bubble and the justification for Amazon (AMZN) or Cisco (CSCO) at 3-4x current share prices. In hindsight we can see that prices were ahead of the fundamental reasons for owning those stocks. However, because enough people thought the price appreciation would continue, the price traded as high as it did. Reflexivity made the price the level that it traded.

Read more >>

Arizona ranked fourth for new jobs totals

2006-10-21T08:40:00.000-07:00

The Business Journal of Phoenix - 1:44 PM MST Friday

Arizona added 119,200 jobs between over the last 12 months and 5,500 new jobs between August and September of this year, according to new numbers from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Those year-over-year jobs numbers rank fourth in the U.S. behind only Florida, Texas and California. Those states have far larger populations than Arizona.

Read more >>

Sellers stuck with real estate slowdown

2006-10-15T11:42:00.000-07:00

By Ed Gately, Tribune
October 11, 2006

Craig and Shannon Bohall bought an existing home in Mesa three years ago, and now they have an opportunity to move up to their first brand new home. Their house, near Baseline Road and Val Vista Drive, has five bedrooms, 3 1 /2 bathrooms and lots of amenities. They put their house on the market more than a month ago in hopes of a quick sale so they can close on their new home by mid-November.

However, the house hasn’t budged. It’s just sitting on the market day after day without drawing any buyer interest. The couple already has cut their asking price from $564,995 to $559,995.

“It’s depressing and frustrating because I probably am like 20,000 other people out there,” Craig Bohall said. “You have a beautiful home, there’s nothing wrong with it, but there just aren’t any buyers. And I realize that if I put a beautiful home on the market just like about 20,000 other people, and it’s not going to sell, why would anybody come look at mine just because it’s nice?”

The Bohalls have sweetened the deal by offering a free trip to Hawaii, a free big-screen TV and $10,000 cash to whoever steps forward and buys their house.

Read more >>

To sell that house, pretend you're on first date

2006-10-15T11:22:00.000-07:00

This is great advice for Sellers in Denver and anywhere inventory exceeds six months time...

By John Rebchook, Rocky Mountain News October 14, 2006

... "Things are tough, and everyone knows that," Fritzel said. "You have to think outside of the box."

Fritzel recently had Morton's Steak House cater a meal for 35 to 40 brokers at the house in Cherry Creek North, a residence with almost 6,000 square feet, including the 1,783-square-foot basement.

"I had all of the heavy hitters," he said.
Liz Richards, a broker with Leonard Leonard & Associates, compares selling a home to going on a first date.

"Getting a house ready for the open market is much like getting oneself ready to date after a hiatus from singledom," Richards wrote in a recent newsletter. "You've been there and you know what I'm talking about. When you aren't on the market, either as a home or person, nine times out of 10 you get a bit relaxed about the details because you are not in competition mode. And competition is, especially in this market, of hideous abundance (I'm talking homes here)."

Read more >>

Median price of Phoenix-area home drops for 1st time in a decade

2006-10-13T05:28:00.000-07:00

PHOENIX -- The median price for a resale home in metropolitan Phoenix fell in September for the first time in a decade, another sign that the region's housing market continues to slow.

Only half the number of homes sold last month as the same month a year earlier, according to a monthly report by the Arizona Real Estate Center at Arizona State University Polytechnic. Just 4,875 homes sold in the month, down from 9,815 a year earlier. That's the lowest monthly total since February, 2003.

"A lot of it is the buyers aren't out there," said Jay Butler, director of the Arizona Real Estate Center. "The days of the big (price) increases are gone, at least for a while, so the buyer is very cautious about what they're going to do."

Read more >>

Greater Phoenix resale market continues slowing trend in September

2006-10-11T11:52:00.000-07:00

East College at Arizona State University's Polytechnic

Tuesday, October 10, 2006

MESA, Ariz. - In September 2005, the local resale home market began to slow down with 9,815 recorded sales leading to 4,875 recorded sales in September 2006. This is the lowest monthly level since 4,090 sales were reported in February 2003, and the lowest September since 2000, with 4,134 sales. So far in 2006, there have been a total of 52,390 sales, while it stood at 88,750 sales in 2005 year to date. While it was very unlikely that the market could have sustained the level of 2005, the current level of activity is very comparable to that recorded in the years of 2003 year to date, with 55,435 sales.

For the first time in the last 10 years, the year-to-year median home price has declined from last year's $263,000 to $256,900, while it was $264,900 in July 2006. The record to date was June 2006 at $267,000.

For September 2006, 14 percent of all recorded sales were for homes priced from $125,000 to $199,999, 46 percent for $200,000 to $299,999 and 37 percent for homes priced over $300,000. Last year, the distribution of all recorded sales was 29 percent for homes priced from $125,000 to $199,999, 34 percent for $200,000 to $299,999 and 32 percent for homes priced over $300,000.

Read more >>

Buyers, sellers skittish over falling home prices

2006-10-11T11:51:00.000-07:00

Glen Creno
The Arizona Republic
Oct. 10, 2006 07:20 PM

The Valley's resale housing market continued to slow in September as the market struggled to find a bottom.

The number of houses sold fell and, for the first time in a decade, the median price was down from the same time last year, according to the latest resale report by the Arizona Real Estate Center at Arizona State University Polytechnic.

Prices have bounced around from month to month as the market recovers from the buying frenzy fueled by investors and speculators. But it's the first time in 10 years that the price dropped when compared with the previous year. The latest median resale home price in the Valley is $256,900.

Read more >>

Mortgage rates continue fall

2006-09-29T20:58:00.000-07:00

East Bay Business Times - 2:29 PM PDT Thursday
by Jeff Clabaugh

Long-term mortgage rates have dropped in eight of the last nine weeks, but buyers are still on the sidelines.

Freddie Mac's weekly rate report puts the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at 6.31 percent, down from 6.4 percent last week. It is the lowest 30-year mortgages have been since early March. One year adjustable-rate mortgages averaged 5.47 percent this week, down from 5.54 percent last week.

Read more >>

Governor courts PayPal, company plans hundreds of hires

2006-09-28T19:05:00.000-07:00

The Business Journal of Phoenix - 12:34 PM MST Wednesday
by Mike Sunnucks
The Business Journal

Online payment king PayPal is planning to add a substantial number of jobs to the regional economy.

PayPal, an arm of Internet auction company eBay Inc., has opened a technical center in Scottsdale.

Gov. Janet Napolitano said Wednesday she recently met with eBay Chief Executive Meg Whitman about the company expanding in the state.

The San Jose, Calif.-based company plans to hire more than 100 technical workers for the Scottsdale center by the end of the year. It currently has a handful of workers.

Read more >>

Meet Tempe’s developers

2006-09-25T06:47:00.000-07:00

By Garin Groff, Tribune
September 25, 2006

The Centerpoint Condominiums project in Tempe casts a long shadow over other major projects. The three towers are expected to reach 343 feet, the tallest the city will allow.

Right now it’s the biggest project under construction in Tempe. But several other major developments are planned. Here’s a look at other major projects under way and some key developments already in place.

Read more >>

Renovation to make bank into nightspot

2006-09-24T15:26:00.001-07:00

Edythe Jensen
The Arizona Republic
Sept. 23, 2006 12:00 AM

His design faced some roadblocks, but Neils Kreipke finally got the green light to turn an old downtown bank building into a future city nightspot.

Kreipke, a partner in Desert Viking Holdings, has purchased and renovated several historic downtown buildings, including the old Arrow Pharmacy where work is under way. He is also building San Marcos Commons, 79 new townhouses with retail, restaurant and office space on 15 acres southwest of Chandler Boulevard and Arizona Avenue.

Now, he plans to turn the former Bank One building at 8 S. San Marcos Place in the core historic downtown area into a restaurant and late-night gathering place.

Read more >>

Aloft is part of potential hotel row in Chandler

2006-09-24T15:26:00.000-07:00

Luci Scott
The Arizona Republic
Sept. 23, 2006 12:00 AM

The new Aloft hotel that developers want to build near Price and Queen Creek roads is only the latest in a string of projects on the drawing board that, if they all come to fruition, would create a hotel row with a capacity of nearly 1,000 rooms in a four-mile stretch of Chandler.

There's no guarantee they all will be built, but if they are the intersection of the Santan Freeway and Loop 101 would be the center."

It's going to be a little urban node of activity there, with all the retail and offices and hotels," said Robert Mayfield of Lees Mayfield & Associates.

Read more >>

High-rises to replace flour mill as Tempe's landmark

2006-09-24T07:40:00.000-07:00

By Garin Groff, Tribune
September 24, 2006

Since Tempe’s founding, its iconic downtown landmark has been an industrial building that milled grain into flour. Its downtown scene for at least a generation relied largely on college students, bar food and beer. And the neighborhoods around Mill Avenue mostly vanished.

That’s all changing in a way that will transform Tempe’s place in Arizona and nationally. The new iconic image will be not a single building, but instead a cluster of 30-story luxury condos. The social scene is shifting to swanky eateries with celebrity chefs and boutique wines. And the neighborhoods are coming back — vertically. Nearly everything new downtown ranges from eight stories to 30 stories. The whole thing thrills civic leaders and merchants who insist Tempe is joining an elite group of urban cities known for their bustling downtowns.

Yet it horrifies others who see a quaint college town being gobbled up by developers eager to erect hulking monuments that will forever change Tempe’s face.

Read more >>

Buyers Now Waiting for Favorable Mortgage Rates

2006-09-24T07:25:00.000-07:00

Mortgage rates dropped this week to the lowest level in six months

RISMEDIA, September 25, 2006—(MCT)—Rates for 30-year mortgage rates dropped this week to the lowest level in six months, but the break for home buyers may not be enough to buoy sagging sales in San Bernardino and Riverside counties, according to some real estate agents, mortgage lenders and a university economist. "

It is good news,” said Esmael Adibi, director of the Anderson Center for Economic Research at Chapman University. “It is going to help. But it is not going to make a significant change in the housing outlook."

Read more >>

SkySong's first office building is 80% leased

2006-09-21T19:26:00.000-07:00

This is a great area for investment or first time home buyers. There are reasonably priced properties in the area that will appreciate as the Sky Song development completes.

Qwest plans to rent space, more companies expected

Jane Larson
The Arizona Republic
Sept. 21, 2006 12:00 AM

The first office building at SkySong, the ASU Scottsdale Innovation Center, is 80 percent leased, and developers think they are ahead of the pace for opening the high-tech development by next fall.

Developers are close to the point that they can kick off construction of the second office building, Plaza Cos. spokeswoman Michele Irwin said Tuesday."

We feel like we are ahead of where the industry standards are in filling space," Irwin said.

Read more >>

Maricopa County called real estate 'bust'

2006-09-21T07:23:00.000-07:00

Keep in mind that this company makes money from creating fear in home owners and then offering 'help.' ERA also offers a guaranteed sale, guaranteed price option. Ours is probably more generous than theirs because it is not a revenue stream for ERA. I thought I should post this article since its hitting all the news feeds.

The Business Journal of Phoenix - 11:10 AM MST Tuesday

A company specializing in fast-turn home sales Tuesday labeled Maricopa and 11 other U.S. counties real estate "busts."

House Buyer Network said real estate prices in the markets have been driven to unsustainable levels by years of speculation and increased reliance on low down-payment, short-term ARMs. That has created a glut of motivated home sellers needing to sell quickly.

Read more >>

2 Tempe hotels get new owners; makeovers planned

2006-09-18T07:18:00.000-07:00

By Donna Hogan, Tribune
September 16, 2006

Tempe tourism is getting a boost with two big hotel makeovers in the works. The Sheraton Phoenix Airport Hotel, a 210-room property at 1600 S. 52nd St., was purchased by JER Partners, a McLean, Va.-based real estate investment trust, for $25.5 million, said Molinaro Koger broker Bill Murney.

The company plans “a comprehensive renovation of the hotel’s guest rooms, corridors, (meeting) space and lobby,” said Devin Chen, JER vice president. The hotel also is slated to get a new exterior paint job and new management, he said.

The new general manager is to arrive next week to get the project in gear, but Chen said detailed designs are already in the works.

Read more >>

Valley's falling home prices are 'necessary correction'

2006-09-18T06:09:00.000-07:00

Catherine Reagor
Arizona Republic
Sept. 17, 2006 12:00 AM

Metropolitan Phoenix's housing market is "somewhat" vulnerable to a real estate bubble.

But that's not necessarily a bad thing, because if home prices dip a little, affordability will climb and the area's growth has a better chance of continuing.

People and companies move to Phoenix because the area has relatively affordable housing for the West, not because the Valley is "hip and cool" or because it has the best education system.

Read more >>

Tempe to usher in new transit era

2006-09-15T19:45:00.000-07:00

Jahna Berry
The Arizona Republic
Sept. 15, 2006 12:00 AM

A new era of transit is taking shape in Tempe, and on Saturday riders, residents and dignitaries will celebrate.

Tempe will mark the start of construction on a $24.5 million Tempe Transportation Center, which is expected to open in 2008. The project, which will share a plaza with the future College Avenue and Veterans Way light-rail station, will include a bus station, shops, a bike station and transit offices.

The project will bring together light-rail access to the Valley, Tempe bus routes, regional buses and bike traffic all to one spot for riders, said Sue Taaffe, community outreach coordinator for the Tempe Transit Office.

Read more >>

Real estate, finance experts raise red flags at 'bubble' hearing

2006-09-13T15:00:00.000-07:00

ARMs, affordability are risk factors as market cools

Wednesday, September 13, 2006

By Glenn Roberts Jr.Inman News

Economists and a representative for the National Association of Realtors, in congressional testimony today, raised red flags about "exotic" mortgages and rising interest rates, energy prices and house prices, though they said they do not expect a doomsday scenario for the nation's housing market.

"With rising mortgage rates, home buyers are becoming exhausted financially, which explains why sales have tumbled in high-priced regions of the country," said Tom Stevens, president of the National Association of Realtors and vice president of real estate brokerage giant NRT Inc., in written testimony.

He also cited a demand for more affordable property insurance in Florida and the inadequacy of Federal Housing Administration loan limits in high-priced real estate markets.

Stevens said a gradual slowdown for the housing market "is certainly possible and under the right circumstances likely, but that a soft landing is critically dependent upon policies that support a transition to a more normalized market and mitigate changes in local markets in the availability of mortgage financing and other essential elements to home ownership."

Economists for the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and National Association of Home Builders also offered testimony during a hearing today, titled "The Housing Bubble and Its Implications for the Economy."

The hearing was held by the U.S. Senate Subcommittee on Housing and Transportation and the Subcommittee on Economic Policy.

A drop in residential construction spending is expected to slash about $21 billion this year from the U.S. gross domestic product and about $49 billion in 2007, Stevens said.
While one-third of the nation's population lives in markets that are still seeing rising home sales, two-thirds live in areas with declining home sales, he said, and "sales are down significantly in Florida, California, Arizona, Nevada, Virginia and Maryland. These regions experienced the greatest rise in home prices in recent years and affordability has become a major issue."
Housing inventory has tripled and quadrupled in some areas with declining sales, he said, and "these areas are vulnerable to outright price declines, particularly if interest rates were to rise further."
The ratio of home prices to income levels, and mortgage debt-servicing costs to income "have greatly increased in some markets to worrisome levels," he said, with Florida, California, Arizona, Nevada, Virginia and Maryland exhibiting "trends far above the local historical norm."

Markets in those states could experience price adjustments, he said, though "price declines are likely to be short-lived" because of job growth. Higher-than-expected rises in mortgage rates or inflation, or more monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve could cause prices to fall back further, he said.

But Stevens refuted the existence of a national housing bubble. "All real estate is local," he said, citing extreme differences in the California and Oklahoma real estate markets as an example.
Richard A. Brown, chief economist for the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., stated in testimony that FDIC studies have found that booms in house-price appreciation are not necessarily followed by a bust in house prices.

"Instead, they found that housing busts were usually associated with episodes of local economic distress, such as the energy-sector problems that beset Houston in the mid-1980s," Brown stated.

But the latest housing boom is unique in some ways from past experiences, he said. "The number of boom markets is substantially higher currently than the historical experience." No markets in Florida met FDIC's criteria for a housing boom from 1977-2002, though the state was home to 21 boom markets, as defined by the agency, in 2005.
"In addition," Brown said, "the use of ARMs (adjustable-rate mortgages) and non-traditional mortgage products is unprecedented and could have an impact on future market performance."

ARMs accounted for about 30 percent of all conventional mortgage loans in 2004 and 2005, according to the Federal Housing Finance Board, and the share of ARMs was higher among sub-prime mortgages, Brown said in testimony.

"What is yet to be determined is the effect that recent changes in the mortgage lending business may have on the ability of homeowners to meet their monthly obligations under adverse housing market conditions," he stated.

"It remains uncertain how much the 'payment shock' associated with these structures may contribute to selling pressure in local housing markets on the part of distressed homeowners or lenders looking to sell foreclosed properties."

David F. Seiders, chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders trade group, also stated in his testimony that there are "considerable uncertainties about the true dimensions of the risk facing homeowners with 'exotic' ARMs," and "there are a lot of uncertainties about the quality of loan underwriting during the boom housing years."

A surge in energy prices could also hurt the housing market, Seiders said, and it's difficult to predict the future behavior of investors and speculators who bought during the boom.
"NAHB's surveys of builders show large numbers of cancellations of sales contracts before closing as well as less-frequent reports of resales of units closed on earlier. Our forecasts assume that any reflow of units back onto the markets is of manageable proportions and that wholesale dumping does not materialize."

The real estate downturn "still has some distance to go, if only to work off excess supply in markets for both new and existing homes (including the condo market)," Seiders said. "Builders are cutting back on new permit authorizations as well as on starts of new units, and they are trimming prices and offering sizeable non-price sales incentives to limit cancellations and bolster sales."

This is a time of "payback" in demand for home ownership, he said, as the boom served to "pulled demand forward." Demand for housing began to fall off in third-quarter 2005, Seiders said.

House prices increased about 56 percent from mid-2001 to mid-2006, said Patrick J. Lawler, chief economist for the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, and inflation-adjusted house prices are 38 percent higher than they were five years ago.

Home prices are at "historically high levels and have already started to stretch past many traditional affordability boundaries," and Lawler stated in his testimony that "several factors may constrain appreciation rates in the near future."

While he said housing markets are expected to "perform well" in the long run, "an important caveat … is that healthy housing markets could soften seriously from an unexpected disruption in the ability of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to function effectively in secondary mortgage markets."

Lawler noted that OFHEO is "currently focused on correcting the significant accounting, internal control, management and corporate governance weaknesses" at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and supports the enactment of legislation "that will create a new regulator with adequate funding, bank-like regulatory and enforcement authorities."

Greater Phoenix Resale Market Up Slightly in August

2006-09-12T11:45:00.000-07:00

Monday, September 11, 2006

MESA, Ariz. - With 5,685 recorded sales in August 2006, the local resale home market continued to drift lower. Although this activity is slightly above the 5,545 sales of July 2006, it is well below last year's 10,700 recorded sales. After the reported activity for August 2005, the resale market began to dramatically change from a hyper market to a much slower market. Historically, August is the last of the strong months as the market recedes in activity until at least March of the ensuing year.

This is the weakest August since 4,940 sales were recorded in August 2002. So far in 2006, there have been a total of 47,515 sales, while it stood at 78,935 sales in 2005 year to date. While it was unlikely that the market could have sustained the level of 2005, the current level of activity is very comparable to that recorded in the years of 2003 year to date, with 47,255 sales.

Although the record median price was $267,000 in June 2006, the rapid rise in home prices appeared to end in September 2005 with a median price of $263,000. For August, the median home price of $262,500 was a retreat from the $264,900 in July, and was not appreciably above $258,700 last August.

Read more >>

30-story Tempe building gets OK

2006-09-10T07:29:00.000-07:00

By Garin Groff, Tribune

September 8, 2006

Federal aviation officials have decided that a proposed 30-story building in Tempe — which would become one of the East Valley’s tallest structures — isn’t a hazard to airliners and their passengers.

Read more >>

Study: Phoenix top relocation destination

2006-09-05T16:48:00.000-07:00

Phoenix has been ranked No. 1 in a new study of best relocation destinations.

The Retirement Solutions Foundation, a group run by personal-finance author Jane White, looked at several factors in devising the list such as local economic strength, employment, housing affordability and attractions that make a city enjoyable.

"Affordable real estate attracts workers, especially from obscenely overpriced California," the study says of Phoenix. " The region also has an unusually large number of organizations devoted to helping small business."

Also, the report noted high rankings for the Valley from Inc. and Entrepreneur magazines and the Milken Institute.

Read more >>

Pending Home Sales Index Fell 7.0% in July, NAR Reports

2006-09-04T10:16:00.000-07:00

By Benton Ives-Halperin
From Dow Jones Newswires

A gauge for future home demand fell sharply during July, the largest monthly drop since the index was created, indicating that the rate of home sales will be leveling out a lower pace in the months ahead.

The National Association of Realtors' index for pending sales of existing homes decreased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 7.0% to 105.6 from June's 113.5, the industry group said Friday.

July's index level is the lowest since February 2003, when it was 99.3.

And July's index reading was 16.0% below the level of July 2005.

David Lereah, NAR's chief economist, said the year-to-year numbers have been a good predictor of the actual pace of home sales.

Read more >>

Refinancing From an ARM To a Fixed-Rate Home Loan

2006-09-04T10:13:00.000-07:00

Question: I currently have an adjustable-rate mortgage for a home I purchased a year ago. Now the rates are increasing every other month. Someone suggested I refinance for a fixed-rate mortgage. How does this work? What happens to the previous mortgage and private mortgage insurance?
-- Sybil Eady, Philadelphia

Sybil: Hell is probably pretty crowded right now, but I hope there's a special circle reserved for lenders who make low-interest, adjustable-rate mortgages without adequately explaining how they work and what their drawbacks are.

And I don't mean just handing you a written form along with the mountains of other paperwork you receive when you apply for a loan. I mean talking to you about what could happen under worst-case scenarios -- until you understand your risks clearly.

Read more >>

Buyers, sellers seek stability in erratic housing market

2006-09-03T18:25:00.000-07:00

Catherine Reagor
Arizona Republic
Sept. 3, 2006 12:00 AM

Valley home buyers are sitting on the sidelines waiting to see when the market is going to level off.

Most open houses are drawing only a few lookers, and those who do show up aren't serious enough to bring real estate agents.

Neighborhood "vigilantes" are pulling down "for sale" signs because they are tired of having so many lookers cruise their streets and turn around in their driveways.

Read more >>

August gain

2006-09-02T09:07:00.000-07:00

The Business Journal of Phoenix - 2:46 PM MST Friday

After three months of sliding downhill, the Arizona Business Conditions Index did an abrupt about-face in August, gaining 6.1 points to reach a reading of 60.5.
The index, updated monthly by the Bank One Economic Outlook Center at Arizona State University's W.P. Carey School of Business, shows economic growth when the reading is above 50 points. A reading below 50 suggests a slowdown in the overall level of economic activity in the near term.

"Until August, the index had been approaching the critical 50-point mark, below which a recession would be indicated," said Dawn McLaren, an ASU economist.

Read more >>

A new way to hedge against falling housing values

2006-08-31T13:26:00.000-07:00

Dean Foust

This development has gotten very little ink (in fact the only publicly accessible story I could turn up on it was this one from last June) but the Chicago Mercantile Exchange quietly began trading futures contracts on home resale values last May. The contracts are based on the Standard & Poor's Case-Shiller Metro Area House Price indexes, which track price changes of existing homes in 10 major metro markets. I’m no financial planner, but sounds like it would be perfect for an individual who, thanks to the bubble, has too much of their wealth tied up in housing, or an individual who bought it at the peak of the market and is now terrified that a downturn could leave them upside down.

Not sure that futures are for the small investor, but you could imagine that this could lead the financial wizards of Wall Street to start creating Exchange Traded Funds based on the Case-Shiller index. Of course that could take a couple more years and might end up being too late for homeowners who ride the market back down again.

Read more >>

Single-family Home Sale Report - July 2006

2006-08-31T06:03:00.000-07:00

Single-family Home Sale Report Arizona Multiple Listing Service Links to ARMLS Data:
ARMLS July Home Sales Report 2005

ARMLS July Home Sales Report 2006

(scroll way down to view a summary of the stats)

	July 2006	July 2005	% Change
Sales Volume	5,565	8,649	-36%
Average Price	$325,733	$305,167	+7%
Median Price	$265,000	$243,000	+9%
Listed	44,623	12,634	+253%

Tempe housing strong, but prices declining

2006-08-25T06:16:00.000-07:00

Close-in location helps sales despite cautious buyers

Betty Beard
The Arizona Republic
Aug. 25, 2006 12:00 AM

Home prices have been slipping this year in Tempe but it is expected to remain a strong market because of its close-in location.

"Tempe is one of the faster moving parts of town right now, in addition to downtown Phoenix," said Tempe Realtor Kent Gagon. "

Houses seem to be selling closer to average list prices."Houses near Arizona State University and those priced under $300,000 are selling especially well, and some homes are getting a lot of traffic, Realtors say.

Read more >>

First-time buyers catch a break

2006-08-20T16:57:00.000-07:00

Discounts and aid programs counter higher prices and open doors to ownership

Catherine Reagor
The Arizona Republic
Aug. 20, 2006 12:00 AM

The housing market's woes are generating opportunities for first-time home buyers.

Despite higher home prices and interest rates, fledgling buyers are finding more options and more time to look because of a record number of homes for sale.

More sellers are motivated to cut prices. Some real estate agents are willing to cut commissions to make a deal. There's more financial aid than ever to help people get into homes of their own.

Read more >>

Housing slowdown leads to economic index decline

2006-08-20T07:39:00.000-07:00

The Business Journal of Phoenix - 11:56 AM MST Friday
by Mike Sunnucks
The Business Journal

A national economic index is on the decline as a slowed housing market in Phoenix and other major cities begins to take a toll on the overall economy.

The Conference Board's leading index declined slightly, down 0.1 percent in July with slowed housing permits being the main cause of the dip.

Read more >>

Tempe leaders say condos near ASU are too tall

2006-08-19T19:11:00.000-07:00

By Garin Groff, Tribune

August 18, 2006

Tempe took a chunk out of plans to build the East Valley’s tallest building in its downtown. The city’s leaders said the 30-story condo project called University Square was too high for a building on University Drive.

The City Council decided Thursday that the development was OK only if the developer lopped some floors off two of the three towers. The developer wanted one tower to climb to 345 feet — and up to 370 with equipment — but Tempe capped the buildings at 300 feet.

Read more >>

Housing downturn will hurt

2006-08-18T06:53:00.000-07:00

Aug. 17, 2006 12:00 AM

Want to make a million bucks in real estate? Start with $5 million, or so the old joke goes.

Nobody's laughing now. Metropolitan Phoenix, more dependent on the housing industry than any other major city, is facing its greatest immediate economic challenge in at least 16 years as the real estate boom ends.

Read more >>

Three Red Flags to Consider When Screening New Tenants

2006-08-17T16:58:00.000-07:00

By Andrea Coombes
From MarketWatch

One key to managing rental property successfully is choosing the right tenants, said Janet Portman, an attorney, author of "Every Landlord's Guide to Finding Great Tenants" and a managing editor at legal publisher Nolo.

Often, that decision goes dreadfully wrong. "Landlords who don't screen carefully end up with poor tenants," Portman said. "When they have to evict...they almost always come out on the losing end financially.

That's because evictions often drag on for a long time, she said. Plus, "to rub salt in the wound, if the tenants want to take revenge and trash your property, then you've really been burnt -- and that happens all the time."

Read more >>

Winery, bakery among developer's plans for mill

2006-08-17T05:36:00.000-07:00

Jahna Berry
The Arizona Republic
Aug. 17, 2006 12:00 AM

A winery and an Italian-style bakery could join boutiques, non-chain shops and mid-rise condos by the Hayden Flour Mill site.

Avenue Communities tonight will seek city approval of an agreement that would transfer the flour mill project from MCW Holdings to Avenue.

Avenue's proposal is the latest vision for the area by the mill, and the historical mill silos would be preserved under the deal.

Read more >>

Money Magazine's Best Places To Live 2006

2006-08-14T20:57:00.000-07:00

And the winners are...Americans are flocking to places that offer big-city opportunities and amenities -- with a lot more green space and a lot less stress. See the top 10 Great American Towns.

1. Fort Collins, CO
2. Naperville, IL
3. Sugar Land, TX
4. Columbia/Ellicott City, MD
5. Cary, NC
6. Overland Park, KS
7. Scottsdale, AZ
8. Boise, ID
9. Fairfield, CT
10. Eden Prairie, MN

Read more >>

Historic Hayden Mill is due face-lift

2006-08-14T20:46:00.000-07:00

By Garin Groff, Tribune
August 14, 2006

The developer of the 30-story Centerpoint Condominiums is planning to put its mark on one of downtown Tempe’s most important pieces of history, the Hayden Flour Mill.

Avenue Communities LLC will likely take over redevelopment efforts on a Valley landmark that has sat idle for the past decade.

Read more >>

Home resales at 7-year low for July

2006-08-13T10:00:00.000-07:00

Correction in housing market continues after robust '05

Betty Beard
The Arizona Republic
Aug. 12, 2006 12:00 AM

By now it's obvious the traditional surge of home sales in the summer isn't happening this year. Actually, it's worse than that.

The latest numbers on housing resales from the Arizona Real Estate Center at Arizona State University show that sales of single-family homes throughout the Phoenix area in July were the weakest since July 1999.

In Tempe, the number of homes sold fell from 270 to 160 from July to July, and the median price rose from $270,000 to $286,000.

Home builders turn eye to Indian land in NE Valley

2006-08-13T09:51:00.000-07:00

Catherine Reagor
The Arizona Republic
Aug. 13, 2006 12:00 AM

New homes will keep going up on metropolitan Phoenix's fringes, stretching its boundaries as more people move to the area.

The Valley will grow south toward Tucson, west past the White Tank Mountains and north toward Prescott. But its growth to the east is likely to come to a halt.

Metro Phoenix is already bumping into Native American land on its eastern fringes. And developers can't just hop over the Salt River or Fort McDowell reservations bordering Scottsdale and Fountain Hills the way they have leaped over other obstacles, including giant chunks of state land, as the Valley grows to the south, west and north. If they tried, they would run into the vast, undevelopable Tonto National Forest on the other side of the reservations.

Read more >>

3 bid to build Town Lake arts showcase

2006-08-12T15:37:00.000-07:00

Katie Nelson
The Arizona Republic
Aug. 12, 2006 12:00 AM

Three arts groups are bidding for 12 acres of prime city land to build an arts destination that could include performing, showroom and retail space, and would give the public a peek at how artists think and create.

"We're going after the wine money, not the beer money," said Jackob Andersen, one of the developers. "We don't want to take anything from Mill Avenue. We want to add to it."

Read more >>

For some, renting makes more sense

2006-08-10T20:45:00.000-07:00

By Noelle Knox, USA TODAY

There's been a debate ever since Micki Seibel and Jan Leger told their friends they were going to sell their home in the heart of San Francisco and rent an apartment.
"Half think it's great. The other half have been trying to talk us out of it," says Seibel, 34, who works for MyNewPlace, a new online apartment search firm.

Read more >>

July's Resale Numbers Continue to Slow

2006-08-10T20:37:00.000-07:00

Thursday, August 10, 2006

MESA, Ariz. - With 5,545 recorded sales, the resale home market in July continued the slowing trend. Although this activity is slightly above the 5,460 sales of June 2006, it is well below last year's 10,200 recorded sales. Historically, resale housing activity in June and July is one of the better times of the year. This is the weakest July since 5,240 sales were recorded in July 1999. So far in 2006, there have been a total of 41,835 sales, while it stood at 68,235 sales in 2005 YTD. While it was very unlikely that the market could have sustained the level of 2005, the current level of activity is very comparable to that recorded in the years of 2003 YTD (41,200 sales) and 2004 YTD (56,745 sales).

The primary news of the last year's housing market was the rapid rise in the median home price from $194,000 in January to $260,000 in December. For July 2006, the median home price of $264,900 was a retreat from the record $267,000 in June, but was above the $255,000 recorded a year ago.

Read more >>

Maple-Ash neighborhood seeks historic designation

2006-08-10T17:28:00.000-07:00

Maple-Ash neighborhood seeks historic designation
Katie Nelson
The Arizona Republic
Aug. 10, 2006 12:00 AM

Tempe's oldest existing neighborhood soon could receive a special historic designation, making it the fourth neighborhood in the city with the protective measure.

Maple-Ash is between downtown and Tempe's largest employer, Arizona State University.

As a result, it has some of the hottest real estate in the city, known for its cozy bungalows with lots of character and big trees.

Read more >>

Tempe lands luxury hotel at Town Lake

2006-08-09T18:39:00.000-07:00

By Donna Hogan, Tribune
August 9, 2006

The first Arizona Le Meridien, a renowned, upscale European hotel brand, has landed on the banks of Tempe Town Lake.

The $105 million, 4.5-star luxury level hotel, topped by the requisite privately owned condos, is expected to break ground in spring and start welcoming guests by fall 2008, said Tod Decker, president of Valhalla Development Group

Read more >>

Sticker shock kills Phoenix state land sale

2006-08-09T18:21:00.000-07:00

Prime site in Desert Ridge

Catherine Reagor
The Arizona Republic
Aug. 9, 2006 12:00 AM

Home builders had a chance to buy a prime piece of land in northeast Phoenix's Desert Ridge development Tuesday. But sticker shock kept them on the sidelines.

No builder or investor was willing to pay the Arizona State Land Department's $150 million asking price for the 325-acre parcel of state land near the busy intersection of Loop 101 and Arizona 51.

For the past few years, land in Desert Ridge sparked bidding wars as home prices and sales in the area soared. In January, a condominium developer paid a record $1 million an acre for a piece of land in Desert Ridge.

Read more >>

Foreclosures are on rise in Valley

2006-08-06T11:47:00.000-07:00

Aug. 6, 2006 12:00 AM

More Valley homeowners are in danger of losing their homes than at any point in more than a year.

In July, notice of trustee sales, which are a lender's first step toward foreclosing on a house, climbed in metropolitan Phoenix to their highest level since early 2005.

Last month, 837 homeowners got notices that they were at least three months behind on their mortgage payments. Those notices mean their mortgage firms are getting ready to evict them and auction off their houses on the courthouse steps.

Read more >>

Infill housing units looking for owners

2006-08-06T11:25:00.000-07:00

Ken Alltucker
The Arizona Republic
Aug. 5, 2006 12:00 AM

A developer purchased and razed a house on 12th Street once owned by a prominent Valley architect and will build an eight-unit residential project on the site.

The "George" housing development, named for architect George Christensen, will include duplex-style homes wedged on a sliver of land at 5600 N. 12th St. between Camelback and Bethany Home roads.

Backers of the project are describing it as a classic infill project more commonly found in dense urban cities such as Chicago or New York. They hope the urban cachet lures buyers willing to pay at least $725,000 per unit.

Read more >>

Developer scales down housing proposal

2006-08-05T09:07:00.000-07:00

Shalimar residents' objections to 5-story buildings are heard

Katie Nelson
The Arizona Republic
Aug. 3, 2006 12:00 AM

Shalimar community members have reached a truce of sorts with the developer who had wanted to build a high-rise in their central Tempe neighborhood.

The community's claws came out this year over plans to put five-story condominiums on the Tri-City Baptist Church property. Neighbors were livid at the idea of having buildings reaching five stories tall on the southeastern corner of their neighborhood at Southern Avenue and Price Road.

About 700 people signed a neighborhood petition saying they would protest any plan that called for density higher than the single-family homes that surround the 9-acre church property.

Read more >>

The Benefits of Buying a Home In a Cooling Real-Estate Market

2006-07-31T16:23:00.000-07:00

By Amy Hoak
From Marketwatch

Residential real estate, a shining star of the national economy that seemed unflappable over the past couple of years, has hit a speed bump.

Nationally, home price appreciation is slowing down from the rapid pace experienced by many markets over the past few years. Mortgage interest rates are on their way up. Is this any time to be thinking about investing in a home? Of course it is -- if you're buying it for a place to live, not as a speculative investment, and can afford to take the leap.

Read more >>

Unfinished houses put people in limbo

2006-07-31T14:52:00.000-07:00

Carl Holcombe
The Arizona Republic
Jul. 31, 2006 12:00 AM

State and local officials are investigating a months-long work stoppage that has left about 200 unfinished houses in Casa Grande and Maricopa withering in Arizona's summer as home buyers wonder whether they'll ever be able to move in.

Buyers like Laquita Jackson and Cedric Moore, who signed a Turner-Dunn Construction Inc. sales contract more than a year ago, have been stranded in rentals instead of living in their dream home. They fear thousands of dollars in earnest money has evaporated. They haven't been able to contact anyone from Turner-Dunn in weeks.

Read more >>

Rules for a Slowdown: It's a new housing market. Here's how to deal with it

2006-07-31T06:49:00.000-07:00

By Alex Markels

Posted Sunday, July 30, 2006

Chevy Chase is one of those Washington, D.C., neighborhoods where lots of folks want to live. Its tree-lined streets boast a patchwork of neatly kept colonials, Tudors, and bungalows. There's a top-rated elementary school, a big park, and gardens lovingly tended by the neighbors. Groceries and restaurants are just blocks away, and best of all in a region known for horrendous traffic jams, it's an easy commute downtown.

Read more >>

A Reckoning With Risk: Will adjustable-rate loans lead to record foreclosures?

2006-07-31T06:46:00.000-07:00

By Alex Markels
Posted Sunday, July 30, 2006

Call it the worst worst-case scenario.

The interest rate on your adjustable-rate mortgage jumps just as the housing market enters a prolonged slump. Then something really bad happens: You lose your job. There's a medical emergency. You get divorced. You fall behind on your mortgage payments, and the bank forecloses on your home.

Read more >>

As Valley home market cools, emotions heat up

2006-07-30T08:15:00.000-07:00

Glen Creno
The Arizona Republic
Jul. 30, 2006 12:00 AM

Real estate agent Neil Brooks was getting the feeling that his client was about to completely lose it. He'd seen it before.He had just broken some bad news about her house deal, and she wasn't taking it well. She was pacing, yelling and swearing at him, tossing a cellphone from hand to hand.

Read more >>

Mortgage rates slip lower

2006-07-29T12:26:00.000-07:00

Washington Business Journal - 12:43 PM EDT Thursday

by Jeff Clabaugh

Staff Reporter

Mortgage rates fell modestly this week, but housing sales continue to slow.

Freddie Mac's weekly rate report says 30-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 6.72 percent, down from 6.8 percent last week. Long-term rates are still almost 1 percent higher than a year ago.

June 2006 Home Sales Report

2006-07-29T11:02:00.000-07:00

Single-family Home Sale Report
Arizona Multiple Listing Service

Links to ARMLS Data:
ARMLS Home Sales Report 2005
ARMLS Home Sales Report 2006
(scroll way down to view a summary of the stats)

	June 2006	June 2005	% Change
Sales Volume	6,636	9,491	-30%
Average Price	$343,867	$308,600	+11%
Median Price	$254,900	$236,500	+8%
Listed	43,172	11,134	+288%

Wells Fargo to offer 40-year mortgages

2006-07-27T07:05:00.000-07:00

San Francisco Business Times - 2:54 PM PDT 7-25-2006

Wells Fargo Home Mortgage said Tuesday that it will offer 40-year mortgages, adding to the bevy of creative loan products on the market to help home buyers secure financing.
"The primary advantage of a 40-year mortgage is a smaller monthly payment without the risks associated with interest-only loans or Option ARMs," said Joe Rogers, an executive vice president at Wells Fargo Home Mortgage. "A 40-year term reduces monthly payments, making home ownership more affordable."

Read more >>

Tips for Selling in a Changing Market

2006-07-24T14:09:00.000-07:00

Tips for Selling in a Changing Market

Chris Palmeri

No doubt the temperature of the housing market has cooled. Bidding wars, multiple offers over asking, forget about it. If you're thinking it's time to sell, Mark Nash, author of "1001 Tips for Buying and Selling a Home" and a working real estate broker in Chicago, has these words of advice.
-Make sure your properties are listed with a large national brokerage. You need all the Internet and print exposure you can get, locally, regionally, and nationally.
-Don't list with a company that demands you pay a commission, even if you don't sell. Apparently some listing agreements do require you to pay a commission either way. So read the contract carefully.
-Don't list your property with a broker for longer than 120 days. Give them four months. "If they can't do it in 120 days, chances are they can't do it in 180 days," Nash says.
-Demand that your broker does a virtual tour and a minimum of eight still photos on their Web site and on Realtor.com. "This is not negotiable," Nash says. "The buyer of your property might be out-of-town, state or the country, think global."
- When pricing your property, look at comparable sales from the last six months. "That's exactly what the buyer's mortgage lender will use," Nash says.
-If you have multiple properties, sell those in the least desirable locations and models first.
-Pay attention to the absorption rate in your market. This is the number of homes for sale divided by the average number of sales in the most recent month. "Three months is fine, six months is okay, nine months is troublesome and twelve-plus, will not be pretty," Nash says.

Cities, much like people, need to plan as they age

2006-07-23T20:51:00.000-07:00

Valley's booming areas in different stages of life

Lynh Bui The Arizona Republic Jul. 23, 2006 12:00 AM

Cities grow up like people. They start life small, bright and full of potential. In youth, they take chances and make plans for the future. When they hit maturity, they worry about health and stability.

Cities across the Valley are riding a tidal wave of growth. Phoenix tops the country in population gain. Maricopa County is the third-largest county in the nation, adding more than 628,000 residents since 2005. And by 2025, Pinal County is expected to have more than 10 times the residents it did in 2000.

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Realty economist: No good time to hold off

2006-07-19T16:36:00.000-07:00

Pacific Business News (Honolulu) - 9:44 AM HAST Monday

The chief economist of the Honolulu Board of Realtors says rises in interest rates and home prices don't make it a good time to delay buying a home.
"It's never good to wait in the real estate market," Harvey Shapiro told Pacific Business News. "If I told you to wait last year, you'd be mad at me, or the year before."

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Existing homes caught in market correction

2006-07-15T22:54:00.000-07:00

David van den Berg
The Arizona Republic
Jul. 15, 2006 12:00 AM

Sure, fewer Gilbert houses are being sold for more money. And, properties are sitting on the market longer. But don't fret, real estate agents say. "It's back to a normal market," said Duane Washkowiak, a real estate agent with Century 21 Metro Alliance. "I don't see gloom and doom on the horizon at all."

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